The Regime Change is a Delusion
Just look at our own history for the answer.
Discussions about our war with Iran often cite regime change as a reason for our violent action. Supporters of this war argue that the Iranian people are ready for a new government and that our involvement will help them claim their democratic future. But we must seriously question the underlying assumption: regime change is rarely fast or easy, no matter how strong the desire for freedom.
Looking at American history, even with our internal will and external circumstances, achieving regime change was a long, complex, and deadly process, so we should be careful applying similar expectations to Iran.
Some believe regime change can be achieved through military force and political encouragement, despite our status as an enemy to Iran’s government. They are delusional. Even while Iran’s actions are dangerous to their own country and many Iranians want change, history shows that real transformation rarely comes easily. Instead, government turnover is inherently slow and internally driven.
So, if we directly compare our own regime change, the birth of our country, to what might happen in Iran, we must recognize that change will likely be deadly, painful, and slow. There is no guarantee that a new Iranian government will lead to democracy. In fact, one of the most likely outcomes is the continuation of the Islamic Republic, either through superficial reforms or by the current power structures—religious authorities and the Revolutionary Guard—remaining in control.
Our own long road should temper our hopes for rapid transformation in Iran.
America was born from the blood and bones of our ancestors over three centuries. The American blood that was shed in the fields and streets of our country was from every creed possible.
Hence, the phrase “Give me liberty, or give me death!” was famously spoken by Patrick Henry, an American Founding Father, during a speech he delivered to the Second Virginia Convention on March 23, 1775. It is believed the American Revolutionary War began on April 19, 1775. The first battles were fought at Lexington and Concord in Massachusetts.
The Revolutionary War ended in 1783 with the Treaty of Paris, which officially recognized U.S. independence.
The United States Constitution was ratified on June 21, 1788, when New Hampshire became the ninth state to approve it, meeting the requirement for enactment. In fact, North Carolina and Rhode Island refused. The government began operating under the Constitution on March 4, 1789. More than 35,000 Americans died during the war. From the initial calls for freedom to the establishment of the new government, 11 years passed. Thus, expectations for swift regime change in Iran should be tempered by this historical precedent. War has no prejudice for death; it will take the willing and the unwilling, even if it is the name of freedom.
Even then, unity was challenged—the Civil War began in 1861 and ended in 1865 after claiming over 700,000 lives. From 1775, the major regime change took about 90 years.
Equality was slow: women’s suffrage wasn’t achieved until the 19th Amendment in 1920, 145 years after independence.
Yet it was not until the Voting Rights Act of 1965 that most barriers were removed, ensuring that all adults, regardless of race or gender, could vote. This law made universal suffrage a reality for all Americans. So, if you look at it this way, it took about 190 years for us to truly become the United States of America.
If Democracy is truly the start of a free society, our real political age is only 61. So it wasn’t until 1965 that Thomas Jefferson’s phrase had a totality of reality to all Americans: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.”
In comparison, Canada did not have full control over its own Constitution until the Patriation of the Constitution in 1982. Before this, Canada had to ask the British Parliament to pass an act whenever it wanted to change its own Constitution. This also added the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, which constitutionally protects the right to vote. Even though our northern brothers and sisters started their confederation around 1867.
I have no doubt that many Iranians were overjoyed about the deaths of the current government. Many needed the hope that they were not alone in their desire for freedom. But just as many Iranians wept in the streets after the death of their spiritual leader.
And now, as the war has escalated to include numerous other countries, I doubt that Iranians are even thinking of regime change — most, I would imagine, are simply hoping to survive the war that has been brought upon them.
The road ahead for Iran will likely be long and tumultuous, echoing the challenges in our own history. Whether this war sparks lasting change or not, one thing is clear: regime change is never straightforward or swift. Real freedom is hard-won, requiring sacrifice, patience, unity, and death—qualities that shaped America and will ultimately determine Iran’s future.
One other thing to remember: even once free, democracy requires constant attention to the unwritten glue of a Constitution: mutual tolerance of other viewpoints, honoring institutional forbearance, the peaceful transfer of power, and an active citizenship willing to hold their government to account for the power it was elected to hold. Without the glue, the structure or system of any democratic constitution can weaken over time, leading to democratic backsliding, much like what happened in Hungary and Turkey.
Freedom in any form, sadly, requires a bit of delusion.